This morning I read an interesting Reuters news release about the 4-25-12 wargames between the Philippines and U.S. which take place annually in the western islands of the Philippines, which incidentally, has recently discovered oil reserves exceeding 213 billion barrels of oil. China says it has ancient claims to these islands and of course wants to dust off its ancient history books and start claiming them from the Philippines after perhaps thousands of years have past. Of course oil has “nothing to do with it”….Right? The war games take place in the western Philippine province of Palawan. Palawan is near the Reed Bank (part of the Paracel islands and the Spratlys islands, a group of 250 mostly uninhabitable islets spread over 165,000 sq miles west of Palawan. The Spratlys are claimed entirely by China, Taiwan and Vietnam and in part by Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines. The Philippines is due to open oil-and-gas exploration bids in Reed Bank on Friday, April 27, 2012, which could make things even more tense once oil drilling begins. To make matters even worse, Vietnam reasserted its claim to the Spratlys and the Paracel islands, known in Chinese as the Xisha islands, further west of Scarborough Shoal in what it calls the East Sea. For more information look up the Spratly Islands in Wikipedia which has amazing historical details about these islands.
Anyway, since I am an active blogger I always try to read the blogs following an interesting topic and one (The U.S. Philippines wargame story was a new news release by Reuters and there were only 10 blogs when I jumped online) and the last comment by a blogger named RODENTWARRIOR set me back on my heels…..with jaw dropping accuracy and revelation. Please take time to read the following, since it is prophetic:
My belief is that, based on this country’s history of wars, we will be at war with China somewhere between 2017 and 2021. China has a pressing need for cheap oil and coal resources. More important, China has an extreme population imbalance in terms of young males which they will have to put to use somewhere if they wish to avoid major social breakdown on their soil.
Plot China’s moves on a global map. The Panama Canal is run by a Chinese management company, which can very quickly convert to a strategic military asset. China is becoming an active player in Venezuelan oil. China is now becoming a major player in the Caribbean, with “investments” in Dominica, Trinidad/Tobago, Antigua/Barbuda, the Bahamas, Grenada, and Jamaica; almost all are banking havens, which means China should expect very generous treatment as far as the movement of money is concerned. China has already been very active in the Cape Verde Islands for years and is basically the only game in town for Angolan oil; it’s also no accident that Cape Verde is equi-distant from the Panama Canal and Angola. Every one of these moves serves two purposes: to cut off the US from Angolan and possibly Brazilian oil in the south Atlantic along with encircling this country’s greatest vulnerability, the US eastern seaboard; Washington is too close to the water and could be taken quickly by someone who has a good game plan.
One thing I highly recommend regarding China is becoming familiar with the Hukuo caste system; understand it well and you understand why China has a major source of civil amd social unrest that it will have to put to use through war. The basics: males age 20 and under outnumber females of the same age by 32 million and China is in the midst of a mass population migration of mostly young males from rural areas to urban areas. They’re moving to find economic opportunities and female opportunities, only to find neither. Hukuo also moves with them. A very basic nutshell of Hukuo: your birthplace determines your rights and privileges in Chinese society, and it stays with you for the rest of your life; an urban birthplace entitles you and your children to free health care and education while a rural birthplace entitles you to pay the whole nut out of your own pocket. You have the potential for millions of young men with no stake in society. Send them into combat with everything to gain and no other option than to fight and they will fight like f*cks; this makes them very dangerous.
#3.2 – Wed Apr 25, 2012 6:16 AM EDT